A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
